From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Sunday, 25th November 2018- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Posted on - 24 Nov 2018
From the Horses Mouth - Race form Analysis Guide for Sunday, 25th November 2018
- By Cyrus Naterwalla
Race No. 1:- The Rotary Club of Bombay Pier Trophy – Class III & IV – Distance :- 1200M
MOONSHINE :- Well bred and reasonably performed 4 year old filly from the yard of Karthik G, she is a winner of 3 of her 11 starts so far and was in rousing form during the last Mumbai season during which she rattled off all 3 of her wins, seeing her rating jump from 26 to as high as 67. Although most of her best performances came over 7 furlongs, her first win did come over this trip so she does have the speed to tackle it. After going down by a nose to Turning Point when last seen on this track, she was off the track for 6 months, reappearing in the latter part of the Pune season and has been given 2 lung openers to get her back on track. She has been working well suggesting that she is returning to form and the switch from Bhawani Singh to A. Imran Khan is a positive. She has to concede weight all around in this small field and needs to show that she retains her old ability but return to this course should help and she must be respected.
BUNTING :-4 year old filly from the M.K. Jadhav stable who has a similar profile to Moonshine, having won 3 of her 13 starts and she has proved to be effective over this trip. She too was in excellent form in the latter half of the last Mumbai season, finishing runner up to Glyndebourne over this trip and then scoring emphatically over Collegium on her last run of the season. She ran 4 times in Pune, finishing runner up over a mile on her 2nd start there but her last 2 runs over 7 furlongs have been below par. She is likely to have been freshened up by the short break, has been working very well recently and A. Sandesh now takes over in the saddle from S.A. Amit. She does go well fresh and looks to be a strong each way player.
BOTTEGA LOUIE :- Promising 4 year old Excellent Art filly trained by S.K. Sunderji, she has had a chequered career so far, promising much when winning unfancied on debut in a strong field but has failed to add to that initial success, having finished 2nd in 5 of her 9 starts since. She has been erratic in the gates in the past getting left on a couple of occasions and seems to keep finding one too good. She ran thrice during the last Pune season, just pipped by Pioneer over 1400M on reappearance, then finishing runner up to La Magnifique dropped to this trip and ran way below par last time out when only managing to finish 8th so needs to bounce back as well. She is another who usually goes well fresh, has been working well and seems to hold Bunting on their meeting early last season as well. P. Trevor takes the ride today and if recovering from that poor last effort, she looks a strong contender today.
ARASHI :- Improving 4 year old Rock of Gibraltar filly from the stable of Vishal Gaikwad, she is the winner of 2 of her 10 starts so far and is the only one of the principals to come into this race in good form. Most of her racing has been over middle distances, her wins coming over a mile and 7 furlongs so she is likely to find this trip on the sharp side but the long Mumbai straight will be to her advantage. She was steadily progressive on her 4 starts in Pune, winning fluently over Bronx on her penultimate run over 1400M and then catching the eye by finishing on like a rocket from the rear to be runner up to Bronx last time out under her penalty. She did not appear to be strongly fancied that day and the jockey switch from N.S. Parmar to Leigh Roche is a big positive. She comes into this race at the top of her game and with Leigh Roche having already scored a treble on the opening day, she looks a strong fancy to continue his good run.
ENCHANTED :- The only 3 year old in the line up and trained by Malesh Narredu, she is a speedy customer who has finished in the first two in 4 of her 6 runs so far, winning on 2 occasions, last time out over this trip. She appears to be at her best over 5 furlongs though and may find her stamina fading in the closing stages and looks vulnerable to the closers. A.S. Peter is a promising apprentice who rode her to victory last time out and although she is likely to attempt pillar to post tactics, she is likely to be worn down in the closing stages and looks the outsider of the bunch.
MISS MONEYPENNY :- 4 year old filly trained by Imtiaz Sait, she looks a relatively exposed handicapper with 2 previous wins from her 14 starts till date and appears to be running up to her level at the present time. Her last win came way back in September 2017 over this trip in the lower class and although she has managed to place a few times in this class including last time out, when finishing up 3rd to La Magnifique, she appears to be handicapped properly at present and will need to unlock some more improvement if she is to progress further. She appears to be well held by Bottega Louie on a line through La Magnifique and in spite of promising Irish rider Robbie Downey taking over in the saddle, she looks likely to fight it out for minor honours.
CONCLUSION :- With many of the runners coming into this off a recent poor run, it may pay to follow the filly in form and go with Arashi in spite of the trip being on the sharp side for her. She finished on pleasingly when not strongly fancied last time out and with Leigh Roche already having shown he is in top form, she could get the better of perennial bridesmaid Bottega Louie. Bunting and Moonshine both appear to have a chance on their best form but have to prove they have returned to their best after indifferent runs.
Race No. 2 :- The Rotary Club of Bombay North Trophy – Maiden 2 Year Olds – Distance :- 1000M
AHEARN :- This colt by Oath is trained by Nirad Karanjawala and is the only one in the field with prior experience, having raced in the inaugural 2 year old race in Pune where he finished a fair 3rd behind Arabesque. He is likely to have learnt from that experience and should know his job now so has a decided edge over the rest of the runners but may lack a bit in quality and pedigree compared to some of these. He will clearly be fit enough, is to be ridden by P.S. Chouhan and looks to have a good each way shout although he would be vulnerable to something with a bit more quality.
NAMAQUA :- Got abroad 2 year old from the M.K. Jadhav stable who represents powerful connections and should be respected on that score. The pedigree is relatively unknown with the dam Darcique out of Irish sire Cacique with the mother Darwinia being a German Mare who had 2 wins from 7 starts. He does not appear to be one of the yard’s more forward 2 year olds and is probably out for an airing today. A. Sandesh takes the ride and this could possibly be an educative run for something more lucrative in the future and he does not appear to be a likely winner today.
CHEPHIRAH :- Varenar filly from the S.K. Sunderji yard, she has a promising pedigree, being a half sister to La Magnifique who has recently hit form and she could develop into an exciting sprinter. She too does not appear to be fully wound up for her debut run but has had a couple of gate practices and has jumped out well from the gates. She will be ridden today by Dashrath Singh and could add some pep and spice to the finish if living up to her pedigree. Considered.
COPPER QUEEN :- Another got abroad filly, this one from the powerful Pesi Shroff yard, and looks an interesting sort on paper. The sire Zoffany has already been a decent performer, throwing some useful types and the mare having an Australian pedigree by Key Business out of See More Roses. She has been given just 3 easy pieces of work so is entitled to need this run and will have the services of Leigh Roche in the saddle which is a big positive. A paddock check is advised to ascertain her fitness although runners from the yard must be respected and she could have a big say in proceedings.
STARRINGO :- Arazan filly trained by Dallas Todywalla who appears to be the most forward of this lot and seems to be working the best of this bunch, having already showed good speed in the morning gallops and she looks primed to have a bold show on her debut. She is a full sister to Yuvan who has finished on board on 3 of his 4 starts in Kolkotta so far and is also a half sister to Midnight Sky (winner of 2 of his 20 starts) and Allee Bleue who won once from 6 starts at this centre. She appears to have been given enough work to be fit and ready first time out and with P. Trevor in the saddle, she looks the most likely winner in this field.
CONCLUSION :- Not much to go on here except pedigree and track work and Starringo looks set to make a winning debut for Dallas Todywalla, looking the most forward of the unraced lot and also having the best track work by far. Ahearn, with the benefit of experience could prove to be the danger along with the Pesi Shroff trained Copper Queen.
Race No. 3 :- The Rotary Club of Mumbai Queens Necklace Trophy – Class II & III :- Distance :- 1400M
CARBONARA :- Well performed 5 year old gelding from the stable of Imtiaz Sait, who has a fine sprinting pedigree being a half brother to dual Sprinters Cup winner Attila but has proved to be more effective over 7 furlongs. Winner of 5 of his 25 starts overall, Carbonara has looked out of sorts in most of his recent efforts but hinted that he was coming back to his best last time out when finishing on strongly to be a close 3rd to Flag Flying over this trip. He is likely to build on that last effort and has been working well although he has to concede weight to some very promising younger horses today. He is very closely matched with Costa Brava on a line through Flag Flying and with Irish jockey Robbie Downey taking over in the saddle from P. Trevor, he looks a strong each way contender and is likely to be involved in the finish.
COSTA BRAVA :- Progressive 4 year old gelding trained by Pesi Shroff who was a one time Classic hopeful but probably found the 2000 Guineas coming too early in his career and has been progressing smoothly up the handicap ranks in recent times. Pipped by Gloriosus over 1800M when a hot favourite on his last run on this track, he returned from a 6 month break to remain unbeaten in Pune, winning both his starts over 1400M in good style. While he was a convincing wide margin winner the first time out, he had to work hard to peg back Flag Flying last time out and is up a further 5 kilos for the last win. He appears to have maintained his form and fitness, has the scope to progress again having had just 6 starts and should make a bold bid to complete his hattrick with P. Trevor in the saddle. He has been working well but has to concede 4 kilos to another potentially classy type in the form of Excellent and may find that tough to do.
ODESSA :- Enigmatic and inconsistent 5 year old gelding from the Malesh Narredu yard, he clearly has ability as he has shown by winning 4 of his 13 starts but also appears to be a quirky sort and has been hopelessly out of form of late. He seems to have gone off the boil since his last win in December last year where he convincingly beat Eternal Sunshine and has run poorly in his last 6 starts. He continues to sparkle on the sand track but has plenty to prove on the race grass so even though he has the forceful P.S. Chouhan in the saddle, he looks a rank outsider who could spring a huge surprise if in a galloping mood.
EXCELLENT :- One of the leading 3 year olds at the centre, this Dallas Todywalla ward has performed commendably in his limited career so far and ran his heart out in the Pune Derby, finishing a brave 4th to Pioneer when having his stamina stretched over the 2000M trip. Prior to that, he had won both the plum 3 year old races in Pune, the F.D.Wadia and the S.A. Poonawalla Multi Million in good style and overall has won 3 of his 5 starts till date. The drop back to a mile will clearly be in his favour, his last couple of workouts have been impressive and if he is to figure in the Indian 2000 Guineas, then he needs to win this in good style. A Sandesh takes the ride today replacing Neeraj Rawal and a big run is expected from him.
CONCLUSION :- Excellent has proven a sparkling performer upto a mile and looks the most likely winner here in his lead up race before the Indian 2000 Guineas. The improving and classy Costa Brava looks the main danger while Carbonara is also respected if back to his best.
Race No. 4 :- The Rotary Club of Bombay Cup – Class I & II – Distance :- 1200M
LINCOLN :- Speedy4 year old gelding from the Pesi Shroff yard who has won 4 times and placed 2nd on 6 occasions in his 15 race career, and after excelling over 5 furlongs in the early part of his career seems to now be effective over this trip as well, running a commendable ¾ length 2nd to Ruffina in The Sprinters Cup in Kolkotta. He seems to have lost form since that run and his last few efforts have been disappointing although his last run was a bit more encouraging when running a more forward race and kicking on to finish 3rd to Ruffina on Derby Day. He is contesting a handicap for the first time in a while now so this is a drop in grade for him and P.S. Kaviraj claims a useful 5 kilos in the saddle. He is at his best when blazing a trail up front and if his inexperienced rider can judge the fractions well, then he could prove to be very dangerous if allowed his own way up front. Interesting.
TIMELESS :- 4 year old gelding trained by S.K. Sunderji who has won 6 of his 17 starts and picked up form after running a poor race in the Indian 2000 Guineas, winning 4 of his next 5 starts, mainly over this trip and having the distinction of being 1 of just 3 horses who have managed to finish in front of the brilliant Ruffina, taking advantage of his weight advantage and superior fitness to nose her out in the Turf Club Trophy in Pune. He has performed modestly in his last 2 starts, finishing 5th last time out, a length behind Lincoln but is better off at the weights with that rival today and he should hold Holy Smoke on that running. Timeless should have been freshened up by the break, seems to be working very well and with Dashrath Singh taking over in the saddle today, looks a frontline contender to get back to winning ways.
HOLY SMOKE :- 6 year old gelding trained by Faisal Abbas who was clearly a very potent force in his younger days and is a winner of 7 of his 22 starts for a fine overall record. However, his ability seems to be declining with an increase in age and his form over the last few starts has been patchy. He did begin the Pune season with a promising run when a late finishing 3rd to Timeless under a heavy weight but his subsequent runs have been disappointing and he finished 6th behind Lincoln and Timeless last time out and looks unlikely to reverse that form. The booking of P.Trevor today is a positive and he has been working well but he looks vulnerable against the younger horses and is likely to battle it out for minor honours.
PERFECT STAR :- Quality 4 year old gelding trained by Karthik G who is a winner of 3 of his 12 starts so far and looks quite well placed on the scales for this contest. A one time Classic hopeful, he ran a gallant 3rd in the Indian 2000 Guineas and after failing to stay the Derby distance, returned in fine form in Pune, winning back to back races over 1200 and 1400M. He stepped upto Group Company last time when contesting the Pune City Gold Cup over a mile last time out but found the opposition too hot and could finish only 6th. He needs to bounce back from that effort but should have been freshened up by the break and this looks decidedly easier. He is in receipt of 7.5 kilos from Timeless which could prove decisive and with A. Sandesh booked to ride today, looks to have an excellent chance to return to the winner’s circle.
CONCLUSION :- This should prove to be a straight fight between the two promising 4 year olds Timeless and Perfect Star with the speedy Lincoln also a danger if allowed an easy lead up front
Race No. 5 :- The Rotary Club of Hiranandani Estate Trophy – Class IV & V – Distance :- 1000M
LOIRE :- 4 year old filly trained by Narendra Lagad who has had a patchy career so far, winning 2 of her 11 starts but having performed disappointingly in the rest of her starts. She claimed back to back wins in Pune early in her career but seemed to lose her way since then with a string of poor efforts. She ran thrice during the last Pune season and appeared to be regaining form last time out when being eased into this grade and running a cracker in defeat over this trip, just nosed out by Lord Commander on the line. She looks capable of building on that effort and has been working well since the run suggesting that she has held her form. This field does not particularly strong so with K. Nazil in the saddle and claiming a useful 2 ½ kilos, she looks a strong each way player and should almost certainly place but looks to have a tough ask to beat the unexposed and potentially smart Joplin.
JOPLIN :- Speedy 3 year old full sister to Double Nine who began her career during the recent Pune season and has performed impressively in both her runs till date and looks open to plenty of further improvement. Catching the eye on debut when making late progress to finish runner up to Bernice in a strong maiden over 1200M, she was given a couple of months to improve and strengthen and toyed with the opposition last time out when scoring a bloodless maiden win over this trip, beating Highland Empress with plenty in hand. She makes her handicap debut off what looks a very reasonable mark and with P.S. Chouhan in the saddle, looks very hard to beat and is likely to win this comfortably as well.
AME :- Consistent and experienced 6 year old gelding in the care of M.K. Jadhav, he is a 37 race veteran who has won twice but placed on several occasions over this sort of trip. His last win came around this time last year but his last run was in mid March and he is returning from a lengthy absence and may need this run. He is taking on a relatively weak field though, has been working quite well of late and with good apprentice Vishal Bunde booked to ride, he looks to have a decent each way chance if fit and ready to go.
CHOSEN ONE :- 3 year oldSurfrider gelding from the yard of S.K. Sunderji who is still a maiden after 8 starts over varying trips but appears to be finding some consistency of late and was runner up in his last 2 starts. He made steady progress in his 4 runs during the last Pune season and after a couple of 4th placed finishes, ended a good 2nd to Excellent Sorrento over 1200M before chasing home Stormy Atlantic again over 6 furlongs last time out. He looks to lack the scope of improvement of Joplin and should find it hard to beat her but with P.Trevor taking over in the saddle, he appears to be the main danger and should follow Joplin home.
HEXAHEDRON :- Unexposed 3 year old gelding trained by S. Waheed who was given an educative run on the last day of the Pune season and is likely to have learnt from that experience and stripped fitter. He has been given plenty of prep work since the last run and looks to have improved although the booking of Akshay Gaikwad is not all that encouraging. He is an unknown quantity who could be better than his current mark and looks an interesting outsider here.
CONCLUSION :- Joplin is the confident selection to continue her progression and should win this comfortably with no obvious dangers lurking in the field. Chosen One looks the next best while the speedy Loire also looks an each way contender
Race No. 6 :- The Rotary Club of Bombay Seacoast Trophy – Class III & IV – Distance :- 1600M
BRONX :- Well bred and improving 4 year old gelding from the Nosher Cama yard, he has a 50% strike rate having won 2 of his 4 starts so far and looks open to plenty of improvement. An impressive winner over 1400M on this track last March, he was off the track for 6 months after that, reappearing in Pune in September where he was an odds on favourite but looked a little rusty when finishing runner up to Arashi. He reversed that form decisively next time out again over 1400M and is expected to improve again with a 4 ½ kilo penalty for the win looking fair. He is taking on some promising 3 year olds but looks likely to progress again and with P.S. Chouhan in the saddle, is very dangerous to ignore.
TRULY EPIC :- Progressive and well performed 3 year old gelding trained by Imtiaz Sait who has won 2 of his 8 starts so far and seems to get better with his racing as the season progresses. He needed 2 runs last season before scoring an impressive maiden victory over 1400M where he had Bushtops well in behind (ran below par) and followed that up with a good 2nd to Strong Storm. He competed in all the top 3 year old races during the Pune season, finishing 5th in the F.D. Wadia, S.A. Poonawalla and Pune Derby before scoring an attractive win over Intense Stylist in the Rajendrasinghji Million over this trip last time out. He appears to have maintained his form and fitness and with Robbie Downey taking over in the saddle from Akshay Kumar he looks to have an excellent chance to earn another bracket although Bushtops does look a danger.
BUSHTOPS:-Enigmatic but potentially promising grey 3 year old from the M.K. Jadhav stable who clearly possesses ability but does not look totally straightforward, having run alternate good and bad races in his 4 runs so far. Making a promising debut when runner up to Augustus Caesar on this track last season, he ran a shocker when well fancied next time out finishing some way behind Truly Epic who he reopposes today. He returned from a long lay off to score a very impressive maiden win over 1400M where he looked a quality performer and was quietly fancied for the Pune Derby but failed to display his true potential, ending up 6th of 7 again well behind Truly Epic. He usually goes well fresh so this run should be a better one and he has been blazing the track in the morning gallops. A. Sandesh again takes the ride and in receipt of 4 kilos, he could trouble Truly Epic if he has his galloping shoes on. Can upset.
SACRED ROMAN :- Another potentially smart 3 year old, this one trained by Pesi Shroff, he has run just twice so far and was sent off favourite on his debut in the Bangalore Summer Million but could only end up 4th to Desperado and Shesmyscript which looks very strong form. He returned to Pune and taking on relatively easier opposition on the final day, was a convincing winner over Jetfire and Flaming Martini although Bushtops appeared to beat Jetfire with much more in hand. He too is expected to improve appreciably on just his 3rd career start but needs to step up on the bare form to have a say. Leigh Roche is a good booking taking over in the saddle from S. Zervan and runners from the yard always merit respect.
CONCLUSION :- Having already finished ahead of Bushtops on both their earlier meetings, Truly Epic is selected to continue his improvement and repeat his stylish previous win over this trip. At the weights, Bushtopsis a very clear danger if at his best but he does not appear to be reliable while the bottom weighted Sacred Roman also looks interesting.
Race No. 7 :- The Rotary Club of Thane Lake City Trophy – Class IV & V – Distance :- 1400M
VALEGRO :- Improving 3 year old gelding trained by Pesi Shroff who has run thrice so far, having made his debut only in the recent Pune season and looks to be progressing well with his runs. Looking very green and inexperienced when fancied on debut over 1400M, he ran way below par but showed improvement for that run when runner up to Till End of Time upped to a mile next time out. He duly built on that when returning to maiden company over 1400M on his last start, taking his time to get going but getting stronger as the race progressed to win decisively in the end. He is expected to make further progress from that run and should relish the long Mumbai straight. Leigh Roche who is in good form takes over in the saddle from S. Zervan, he is working very well and looks a strong contender to go in again.
ARROWFIELD :- Another improving and unexposed 3 year old who is a stable companion of Valegro and has been making steady progress with his racing. After no show in his first 2 starts, he showed signs of coming to hand on his penultimate run when getting left at the start but finishing on strongly to be 3rd to owner mate Lethal Steps over 1200M and duly built on that next time out over 1400M when scoring a smooth maiden win over Daughterofthesun. He too is expected to improve and progress again and has been penalized 5 ½ kilos for the win with P. Trevor retaining the ride. He too has been working very well and should make a bold bid to repeat.
PERPETUAL WINNING :- 3 year old colt trained by M.K. Jadhav who has run 5 times so far winning once and has possibly not performed upto his full potential just yet. After being fancied and running below par in the B.K. Rattonsey Million, he shed his maiden tag over 1400M next time out, easily beating Mount Olympus to win readily. He was sent off favourite on his handicap debut in Pune but needed his first run on the tight track and was a late finishing 5th to Epiphany over 1200M. Given a further 2 months to improve, he reappeared on the final day of the season over 1400M making late headway to finish up 4th behind Grand Tenton. He is expected to make further progress from that run and has been working extremely well of late. A Sandesh takes over in the saddle from Neeraj Rawal and he has the scope to upset the Pesi Shroff duo and could prove to be value at a price.
KING KHALIL :- Fashionably bred debutant from the yard of young Deepesh Narredu, he looks an exciting prospect on paper and has been moving well in his preparatory work. He is entitled to need this first run against reasonably tough opposition but has been given enough work to be fit on debut and with Yash Narredu in the saddle, looks worth keeping an eye on especially if he is looking fit and well.
GOLD MAGIC :- Improving 3 year old gelding trained by Imtiaz Sait he is a 7 race maiden but has shown some improvement on his last 2 starts. Having made no impression in his first 4 starts he finished a faraway 3rd behind Fleur De Lys over a mile and built on that next time out when a close 3rd in a 3 way photo over 1800M behind Shivalik Skies. He did not seem to improve next time out when well fancied over a mile but only managing to run 3rd behind Zanzibaar and seems to be a bit more exposed than some of the others. Robbie Downey takes over in the saddle today and he looks to have each way claims but looks to be more of a place contender and winning looks tough.
CONCLUSION :- The two Pesi Shroff wards Valegro and Arrowfield look likely to fight it out for supremacy with Perpetual Winning an interesting alternative.
(Disclaimer : Views are entirely that of the correspondent only and RWITC takes no responsibility for the same)